A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
